Did the Stakes Just Get Higher?

Not for the first time this year, the political landscape in Canada has changed drastically. The sad passing of Jack Layton has left a hole in federal politics, depriving Canadians of the opportunity to see what role he would play as Leader of the Official Opposition.

Mr. Layton's commitment to social issues, mixed with his belief that politics can and should be conducted in a more civil tone will be sorely missed in Ottawa. While the NDP may appear to be the group most immediately affected by his death, there are broader implications both in Ottawa and in the provinces.

In a recent post, written shortly after Mr. Layton had announced that he was stepping down, I wrote that as much as the NDP needed him Canada needed him too:

"Mr. Layton is not just the leader of the NDP. He is the Leader of the Official Opposition and the principal critic of government.

His role tasks him with the responsibility of holding the government to account; with offering Canadians an alternative perspective on how their money is spent, their environment is protected, their security ensured and their country governed.

As we consider the challenges, opportunities and choices in front of us, we need strong voices to share all perspectives and alternatives. You don't have to agree with his politics to see that Mr. Layton offers such a voice."

With that voice now gone, who will play this role? The NDP will start the process of finding a new leader, while the Liberals continue with their own renewal process. As John Ibbitson noted this week, this reality has afforded Mr. Harper a degree of freedom that most Prime Ministers never experience.

Cue the provinces.

The stakes in the upcoming provincial elections have just been raised. With federal opposition to the government severely weakened, the provinces may be the only effective opposition facing Mr. Harper's government. This is particularly true in Ontario.

Consider the major issues of debate now facing Canada - the renegotiation of the health accord, environmental policy (and in particular climate change), economic policy, or measures taken to address deficits. As we debate these and other issues, the provinces will become potentially greater sources of opposition to the federal government than the opposition parties in Parliament.

While I am not sure to what extent voters have previously considered who is in power in Ottawa when they vote provincially, they may start doing so now. Why? Like-minded governments offer like-minded solutions. At this juncture, we need a broader perspective; a diversity of options for policy-makers to consider.

The federal NDP will offer this, but sadly they may do so in a less compelling or effective manner. The provinces, lead by Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta, can fill this void.

The challenge for the voter is to take the time to consider all of this over the coming weeks. Consider how a McGuinty-Harper dynamic affects issues like health or the economy, versus a Hudak-Harper dynamic. For those of you in Toronto, factor in Mayor Ford to see how issues like transit funding may play out.

At the same time, voters should challenge themselves to consider the national story. Not just what a Liberal or Conservative government in Toronto may mean for Ontario, but what it may mean for Canada.

None of this is easy to do, but that is what engagement means. It is about considering the implications of your vote and making an informed choice. As noted in a previous post, you can't have responsible government without responsible voters.

The stakes have gotten higher. Our provincial elections will shape the national narrative in a potentially more meaningful way than perhaps we thought. Are we ready to play our part?

The NDP Needs Jack, But So Does Canada

Earlier today Official Opposition Leader Jack Layton announced that he is temporarily stepping aside to receive treatment for a second bout of cancer. Both the announcement and the appearance of Mr. Layton surprised many, as he appeared to be in fine form as recently as June when Parliament broke for its summer break.

The immediate reaction can be broken into two categories. The first was sympathy and concern for the well-being of someone who is respected in politics. Canadians, by and large, like Mr. Layton - his enthusiasm, positivity, and ability to be committed to his principles without being blinded by them.

The second category of reaction is more focused on the impact this could have on the NDP. As one commentator noted, he has become more than just the leader of the NDP - for many voters he is the NDP. While all parties thrive or falter based on the popularity of the leader to some degree, the story is more pronounced for the NDP.

The success of the NDP in May was largely driven, particularly in Quebec, by the appeal and popularity of Mr. Layton. And now he is temporarily stepping aside in what continues to be a very formative period for this new NDP.

For caucus members who should still be basking in the glow of their May breakthrough, the immediate future holds innumerable questions about Mr. Layton's health. Similarly, for a party which should be looking to the future with hope, there is a danger of becoming somewhat introspective. This is the challenge with having a leader-based narrative - they become the story.

But for me, the issue is broader than that. Mr. Layton is not just the leader of the NDP. He is the Leader of the Official Opposition and the principal critic of government.

His role tasks him with the responsibility of holding the government to account; with offering Canadians an alternative perspective on how their money is spent, their environment is protected, their security ensured and their country governed.

As we consider the challenges, opportunities and choices in front of us, we need strong voices to share all perspectives and alternatives. You don't have to agree with his politics to see that Mr. Layton offers such a voice.

So yes, the NDP needs Mr. Layton back and ready for action. But so does Canada.

OMFG. Now What? (from the diaries of Jack Layton)

Early in the morning on Tuesday, May 3, 2011 Jack Layton went to bed having celebrated becoming the presumptive Leader of Her Majesty's Official Opposition. A few hours later, I am tempted to think he woke up, looked at what had happened and for a second thought "OMFG. Now what?"

It's not just that the NDP increased their seat count to 102. Or that they relegated the Liberals to third party status. It's not even how they did it, with such strong results in Quebec - a province where they had previously only held one seat.

No, I think that to the extent there was an "OMFG, now what?" moment it occurred when he considered more fully the make-up of his new Official Opposition caucus - his "government in waiting."

As the shampoo commercial goes, "you never get a second chance to make a first impression." Yes, the stakes are high for the NDP.

So, continuing on the posting of earlier this week I would like to provide some (again, unsolicited) advice to Mr. Layton.

1. Figure out what you want to be when you grow up - quickly

The NDP benefitted from the popularity of Jack Layton, a lack of confidence in the Liberals, the implosion of the Bloc, anti-HST sentiment in BC, and the continued support of its base. It did not obtain 102 seats because of a strong understanding and support for its platform or from the strength of the entire slate of candidates.

However, it now occupies the role of Official Opposition, and as such must decide pretty soon what it wants to be as a party; what it wants to be when it grows up. Is this a traditional New Democratic Party, as its platform and approach over the past few years suggests? If so, make that clear through the positions you take on the policies of the day.

Or do you want to be Canada's version of New Labour? Are you looking to ride a popular leader, and mix social democratic principles with a commitment to fiscal responsibility and a vision that fits within a 21st century economy?

Put another way, decide if you want to stay where you are or whether you want to move towards the centre.

When the dust settles, a large part of your new job is to present Canadians over the next four years with a credible alternative. The Liberals suffered from not defining themselves until the campaign, to some degree hoping that they could be the default option. It didn't work for them and it won't work for you. Be clear about who you are and what you represent.

2. Staff Well

You have 102 MPs, several of whom will form your shadow caucus and become your spokespersons on a broad range of issues. While you have the opportunity to draw on your experienced MPs for these roles, beyond them you have a lot of neophytes.

- Some who have never served in government - I don't count school councils.
- Some who have served and been served - but in campus bars.
- Some who had never voted before Monday - because they were too young.

With the lack of experience across a large swath of the NDP caucus, you would be tempted to call them the real "green party".

What they need is staff. They need to work with people who have been on the Hill, understand Parliament, understand the press gallery and how to communicate (and how not to). They will need guidance, someone to say no, someone to help them translate their idealism or indignity into a coherent policy option.

A strong staff provides discipline, order and can limit the errors that are replayed endlessly and which can prove fatal to an MP and his or her party. Staff well.

3. What to do about the Liberals

A large part of the upcoming Liberal discourse will focus on the party's relationship with the NDP. You will be drawn into this debate whether you like it or not, so you should start to consider what is your long game.

You can try to leverage your new platform and define yourself sufficiently in the eyes of Canadians such that the Liberals are increasingly marginalized. In other words, go for the kill. Don't lament the end of the public vote subsidy, develop a strong fund-raising mechanism of your own and pick up the pieces as the Liberals suffer.

Alternatively, acquire more (albeit damaged) centrist credibility by offering an olive branch to the Liberals to work together and develop a new alternative centrist option in Canada. Call it a merger, a partnership, whatever - just don't say coalition.

But don't wait too long to have your Peter McKay moment, if that is where you intend to go. If you do wait too long, the Conservatives will make it the defining issue of the next election and you will lose momentum and the ability to develop your own narrative.

4. Je me souviens

Quebec. Be careful how you play in this space. Don't make promises you can't keep or open doors which lead nowhere. You beat the Bloc soundly in this election, and that should be commended. However, how you handle Quebec issues over the next four years will be crucial. Do it well, and the possibilities of a real federalist, social democratic option are strengthened.

Do it poorly, make too many missteps, or demonstrate your lack of influence in Parliament and the PQ and the Bloc will both benefit.

***

Above all else, find the right mix between hyperbole and realism. Be honest, measured and informed. Use year one to establish credibility and make people say "wow, they were better than I thought." It will do you a world of good.

See, the NDP had a great result and reason to celebrate. But after every celebration comes the hangover. Today, the NDP has less power as the Official Opposition to a majority government than it did as the third party in a minority Parliament.

But, what they do have is an opportunity and a platform. How will they do?