Role Reversal

Once upon a time there was a majority government that was prone to episodes of arrogance, and which would frequently demonize its opponents. When necessary, hardline tactics were used to end debate. They could be ruthless when necessary, capitalizing on the missteps of their opponents to secure victory.

At the same time there was an opposition. A collection of MPs, many of which shared similar views even if they did not share the same party affiliation. They were spirited, divided and frustrated. They did not consistently give the appearance of being a government in waiting.

This was the scene a decade ago. The government was Liberal and the opposition was the divided right (along with the NDP and the Bloc).

Fast forward ten years and the roles have been reversed.

The Conservatives are united and have their majority. They are a government which regularly faces accusations of arrogance and fear-mongering.

The progressive vote is now very much divided, with the NDP as the official Opposition and the Liberals trying to define themselves. Looking at the front benches of either, one struggles to see the makings of a full Cabinet.

While there are obvious differences to between the two eras, there are nevertheless interesting parallels that can be drawn - particularly for the opposition. I am going to focus on two: the pressure to merge; and the opportunity to influence.

1. The pressure to merge

In the late 1990s and into the early 2000s, there was growing pressure for the parties of the right to merge. In the end, it took three things to make it happen. Mr Harper's leadership (with Mr. Mackay's acquiescence), the push from the conservative establishment, and the fear over what a (pre-sponsorship scandal) Martin government would do to the right in an election.

Looking at things today and we do not see the same pressure points, yet. Permanent leadership among the NDP and Liberals is needed for a real dialogue to occur. The absence of the election around the corner also means that the parties are not feeling that same level of fear Conservatives had when it was widely assumed Martin would take power and immediately seek his own mandate.

Finally, the progressive vote is only now starting to see what a Conservative majority looks like. Over the next 12-24 months - and two budgets - the answer to the question "what will a Harper majority look like" will be answered. Depending on that answer, the progressives may start to see greater impetus to merge.

2. The opportunity to influence

During the late 1990s, the conservative right gradually came to have some influence on policy. Deficit reduction and clarity act are the two big examples where their influence could be seen.

This is not to say that they drove these policies or exacted them out of the government. However, the fact that views they were expressing were shared by many Canadians helped move the Liberal government to act. Put another way, they were on the right side of the argument. This had the effect of allowing more Canadians to see the right as being able and ready to govern.

Looking at things today, the progressive opposition would do well to find similar such opportunities to get on the right side of the argument. They need to develop cogent positions which mirror the public mood and try to influence.

The first opportunity will come over the coming months as the government prepares what promises to be an austerity budget. This budget (and the next) will introduce sharp contrasts between the conservative and progressive views on the role of government. In other words, there is a great opportunity to do more than oppose - they can present an alternative.

***

The Conservative government isn't going anywhere for the next few years, and are well-positioned for the next decade. Those are the facts. However, the same could be said of the Liberals during much of their 13 years in power. The lesson - everything changes, so be prepared.

The progressive parties have time to prepare. Part of that preparation should include a meaningful discussion on merging. It should not be simply ruled out. They also need to use the coming months to start to develop policy positions which both reflect and influence how the public views the role of government.

In other words, they need to start down the path of looking like a viable alternative. It will take time, but it has to be done if they want to see roles reversed again.

Canada's Conscience or a Government in Waiting?

The results of #elxn41 have given us a Conservative majority and left the NDP as the Official Opposition. A lot of the discourse of the past few weeks has been focused on what we can expect from the Conservatives, now that they have achieved their coveted majority.

But what of the NDP? In the immediate aftermath of the election, the focus - including here in the hallowed halls of A Guy Watching Politics - was on the inexperience of the NDP caucus and the pitfalls before them.

However, as the Liberals continue their retreat from our political consciousness for the time being, it is natural that our thoughts turn more deliberately towards the NDP. In doing so, it is timely to consider the role they will play as the Official Opposition.

With few exceptions (e.g. the Bloc after 1993), the Official Opposition is generally playing the role of "government in waiting." While the onus is on them to provide a credible alternative, in truth much of their time - particularly in a majority Parliament - is spent simply opposing and trying to catch the government out.

This reality contributes to the truism that oppositions don't win power, governments lose it. Opposition parties are more often than not elected because of the perceived failings of the government, or a simple desire for change.

So what of the NDP? Are they a government in waiting? The short answer is not yet.

I see them as being less like a traditional Liberal or Conservative opposition, and instead resembling something more like the Bloc or Reform after 1993. This characterization presents some interesting possibilities.

1. Putting aside the obvious differences in their national (dis)unity positions, the NDP and the Bloc are both socially progressive parties that see a role for government as an agent of change and being active in the lives of Canadians.

The Bloc knew it would never form a government, and therefore used its clout to try extract concessions from government that favoured Quebec. The NDP may come to a similar conclusion and opt to use its new found strength to do the same in the areas it has flagged as important - education, health, seniors, the environment. Their strong Quebec contingent in caucus could add further push towards a move in this direction.

In this scenario, the NDP would serve as a strong and from time to time compelling voice, but not as a government in waiting. A social conscience, if you will.

2. Another possibility for the NDP is to be a left of centre version of Reform. As long as the right was divided, Reform was never going to form the government. However, what they could do was influence. Reform understood that a sizeable percentage of Canadians favoured elements of their political agenda (or at the very least a conservative one), and were able to use this fact to influence government policy.

One could argue that the successful reduction of the deficit and the Clarity Act would not have been possible - or at least not as strongly accepted - without the presence of Reform. They helped legitimize actions taken by the government.

Reform also knew that time was on their side. Unlike the Bloc, Reform could see the potential for the bigger prize - government - in the future. Their support, while originally based in the West, was growing. At some point they knew that the right would unite and they would be well-placed when Canadians wanted change.

The question is can the NDP do the same? Will they be able to use the fact that a sizeable percentage of the electorate are less concerned about being tough on crime, and are more seized by issues like health, families and the environment to influence government policy? More importantly, will they be seen to be playing this role?

If they can, then they may start to take steps towards being seen as a government in waiting.

***

Obviously a key variable in all of this is the fate of the Liberals. How they fare under Mr. Rae and the leader they ultimately choose will help determine whether they can return, whether the NDP move centre and take their space, or whether a unite the left move is in the cards for Canada.

However looking at the cards on the table right now, the NDP has a choice.

They can become, for want of a better term, Canada's conscience - a party which knows it will never form a government and therefore devotes its time and energy towards pushing the government on the issues that matter most to them, extracting what they can along the way. Winning battles, but never the war.

Or, they can start the long journey towards becoming a government in waiting. Taking measured and well thought-out positions on the issues of the day. Looking to influence government policy, but also laying track to enhance their credibility and building trust among the electorate.

So readers, what will it be?

Ready to Oppose?

With all of the recent commentary on the Liberal's caucus retreat, recent poll numbers and the generally positive media coverage of the Liberal Express, I have found myself wondering what the Official Opposition has learned in the past year.

The party line is that things have improved, the ship has been righted, the caucus is on side and they are ready to be a true Official Opposition. In truth, the recent signs are encouraging.

Now, as they enter the fall session in the House my thinking is that the party needs to more deliberately frame its message to the voter; to frame the infamous ballot box question. Already there are signs that this is a priority, with the "Big Red Tent" messaging.

Here are some suggestions on how to build on their summer momentum:

1. Play the arrogance card. Often. Canadians draw a fine line between respecting strength and loathing arrogance, and for many the Harper government has on more than one occasion come very close to that line. The Liberals need to make this a core part of their message.

2. Play the bully card. Often. Memorize the list of public servants who have been marginalized by the governemnt for making their views known and weave it into your messaging.

3. Do not forget the economy. Points 1 and 2 are great, but at the end of the day given a choice between worrying about their jobs or the census, voters will focus on their jobs. The Liberals need a clear message on their vision for the economy, and a credible plan as to how they will achieve it. At the end of the day, voters will ask "how much will this Big Red Tent cost?"

The improving Liberal fortunes we have heard about are, to some degree, a result of them no longer making the types of mistakes that were occurring in 2009-2010. However, their fortunes have also improved as their opponents have suffered missteps. They cannot count on this type of political generosity forever.

Now is the time to start to stake their claim to be a true government-in-waiting. This means being ready to oppose and presenting a clear option. Are they ready?

Thoughts?