3 down, 1 to go...By-Election Results

So, at just past 11:15 pm EST here is where we stand:

- Conservatives will pick up Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
- The Bloc will hold Hochelaga
- The NDP will, it appears, hold New Westminster-Coquitlam

This leaves Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, where the Conservatives were holding a 700 or so vote lead. Should the results hold, this would be an important pick-up for the Tories.

It's in Mario Dumont's old territory and many will recall how ADQ voters were the Quebec voters that the Conservatives had tried to target over the last few elections. Mario is gone and the ADQ is done, but the Tories do appear to be resonating with these voters.

What's not clear is what these results tell us about the Liberals. They came third in all 4 ridings, but these were not ridings where they were expected to win. You can bet that this will be the spin coming your way.

So when we wake up tomorrow, what will we hear? To start, we will hear the Tories use the results to emphasize that Canadians do not agree with the policies and approach of Mr. Ignatieff. Expect to hear them emphasize him by name (versus Liberals as a party).

We will also hear talk of the NDP holding its own against the big boys in N.S and Quebec (finishing second twice), and winning in B.C. Cue Jack on t.v. Lots of Jack.

Will any of this make a difference as to how Canada is run today? Will policies change? No. But does this help set the stage for the next election? Yes. The government will come out of this very pleased with the results. The win in Quebec is great; the continued marginalization of the Liberals may be even better for Mr. Harper.