Election Night in Ontario (just not on CBC)

We have waited a long time, but tomorrow night is nearly here. Old rivals squaring off against one another. One in red, the other in blue. Hope, intensity and a chance at glory. Yes Ontario politics watchers, tomorrow is election night!

Oh, yeah, and the NHL season also starts with the Habs versus the Leafs. Go Habs!

After a short official campaign and quite a long unofficial one, Ontario voters will go the polls tomorrow and, depending on which poll you are reading, will elect:

- a third straight Liberal majority; or
- a Liberal minority, with the NDP holding the balance of power; or
- a Progressive Conservative minority, with the NDP holding the balance of power; or
- a legislature where the two main parties having an equal number of seats, with the NDP opening a bidding war for their support.

I won't go into the differing polls here, but you can find some good analysis and perspective at 308.com. As the blog notes, with such wildly different projected outcomes there will surely be some pollsters looking a tad embarrassed come Friday morning.

Since I leave polls to the experts, I decided to relax this evening. However, as I prepared to sit back I was treated to one of those lovely, "only a political geek would appreciate this" moments. My phone rang and when I answered, I had a message from one of the Ottawa Liberal candidates inviting me to stay on the line for a live, "virtual town hall" with all Ottawa Liberal candidates, including Premier McGuinty.

Being A Guy Watching Politics, I was tempted to say "You had me at hello."

The call was a neat format. I was placed into the conference which was underway, and listened to Premier McGuinty finishing off a response to a question from a listener regarding seniors. I then heard remarks from the other Ottawa candidates, followed by listeners asking questions of the Premier (all questions were pre-screened - mine did not make the cut!).

I am not sure whether these had been done earlier in the campaign, or whether this was the first instance. I also don't know if the other parties had done something similar (if you know, please leave a comment).

What I do know is I quite liked it, and not just for the geekiness of it. The more interesting element for me was that for the most part there was very little commentary about why someone should not vote for the PCs or the NDP. Fear mongering was in relatively short supply. Instead I heard the candidates outlining their record as a government and their priorities going forward.

I found Mr. McGuinty's tone, in particular, to be very positive. It was calm, earnest and focused. Education was a recurring theme and to my ears he effectively used personal anecdotes to make his remarks less like a sound bite and more like a conversation.

So, did the Liberals finally start reading A Guy Watching Politics and other blogs and commentaries which are demanding more from our political discourse? While I would love to say yes, the answer is likely no.

One argument to make is that what I heard were the final arguments of a party comfortable that the outcome will favour them. This was the tone and confidence of a front-runner.

Another perspective is that this was the tone of front runners here in the Ottawa ridings. The Liberals are confident here, and therefore could appear more positive and statesman-like.

What I don't know is whether other Liberal virtual towns have taken place tonight, and if so whether they took a different tone and were more confrontational and partisan. What would one in a 905 riding sounded like, for example?

If you know, please let me know. Otherwise, let's connect tomorrow and see what the voters bring us. Polls are open 9:00-9:00, with result coming when they close. Oh yeah, and CBC is carrying hockey.

Poll-Axed

By this time, virtually everything you read concerning #elxn41 and the final days before the vote is squarely focused on the rise of the NDP. We are seeing discussion of their national numbers, the story in Quebec and the growing sense that Jack Layton could replace Mr. Ignatieff as the Official Leader of the Opposition.

Yes, it's been quite a week.

For the Liberals, how the next few days play out could have a significant impact not just on how they do on May 2, but on their future. So, what happened?

To start, the Liberals tacked left and looked to make the campaign about a choice between the Conservative agenda and one which was more squarely focused on families. While they quite rightly argued that a sound economy should be rooted in strong a social foundation, their message did not catch.

This isn't to say that people don't like the message. The programme they put forward was intended to appear to NDP voters, women and students. Initially their strategy appeared to be working. They stayed on message, ran a disciplined campaign, and were receiving plaudits.

However, throughout the initial period leading up to the debates it appeared that voters were torn between the message and the messenger. Mr. Igantieff as a leader was simply not getting traction.

Queue the debates and the performance of Mr. Layton. While I was not overly impressed by him, many were - particularly in Quebec. By displaying equal measures of forcefulness and joviality, Mr. Layton looked principled and committed while Mr. Igantieff often appeared angry. It was Mr. Layton, and not Mr. Ignatieff who looked more likely to do what many Canadians want - find a way to make things work.

In hindsight, I think an element of his message was not so much "us or them", it was more "let's just get it done." In so doing, he appeared more above the fray (though not entirely).

This appears to have resonated most strongly in Quebec. If the polls are correct, the NDP could be on its way to an historic breakthrough in the province. For many, the NDP appears to offer a third way; a break from the traditional federalist-sovereignist divide.

They are offering a progressive, social democratic programme which is aligned with the views of many Quebecers. They are also increasingly speaking to a demographic that is removed from the old squabbles on national unity.

Think about this for a moment: We are 16 years removed from the last referendum, 31 years since the first referendum, 35 years since the historic PQ election and more than a generation since the Quiet Revolution.

For many voters in the province, the battles of the past are history; they represent the narrative of a different generation. The problems and opportunities of today are real and pressing and that is where they would prefer their politicians direct their energy. The Bloc looks faded in such a light; the NDP looks new and more engaged.

Of course, we still have a few days until the vote and much can happen. Ground game is an issue for the NDP, as is the possibility that the prominence of their story and the predictions of success could push people back to the Liberals. There are also real challenges with the costing of the NDP platform.

Mr. Ignatieff will hope that this proves to be the case. Despite running well and demonstrating passion and eloquence, he has been "poll axed" over the past week. Each new poll seems to make the story worse and the prospect of a bad defeat seem more likely. Momentum is a funny thing. It's hard to get, but when you do it can often take on a life of its own - a band wagon effect. When it's lost, it is very, very difficult to get back.

Mr. Layton appears to be benefitting from the former; Mr. Ignatieff suffering from the latter. One way or the other, May 2 is now shaping up to be more interesting than we thought at the outset of the campaign.

Jack in the (ballot) box?

Many will have woken up this morning to the news that the NDP is on the move up in the polls. One has them leading in Quebec (CROP), another has them tied nationally with the Liberals (EKOS) and all show a positive trending for Mr. Layton's party.

I say Mr. Layton's party for a reason. A huge driver of the move appears to be the popularity and credibility voters see in Mr. Layton. This was something that we started seeing after the debates (particularly the French debate) and which has been slowly building over the past week.

So what should we watch for?

1. Sustainability - will the NDP be able to keep these numbers up for the final 12 days?

2. Ground game. Getting your vote out in places where you expected to do well is one thing. Getting it out in places where you really didn't think you had a chance is another. Is the NDP ready for election day in, for example, Quebec?

3. The Liberal numbers in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. If these continue to fall, they have a problem.

Keep an eye on http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/ for their usual, excellent analysis. As of this morning, they are not seeing these polling numbers translating into seat changes, but it make take some time. Again, sustainability is critical.

All to say, watch this space to see whether things revert to type or whether voters think of Jack at the ballot box.

Gee Mom I Wanna Go, Back to Ontario...

It is the electoral mother-lode in Canada. With 106 seats it is, for all intents and purposes, the make or break province for a prospective government. Ontario.

Only once in our recent election history has a party formed a majority government without Ontario. That was in 1988, when Mr. Mulroney was able to overcome the province's concerns with the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement. Other than that, it's been simple. Take a strong plurality of seats in Ontario and you win.

Ontario is what gave Mr. Chretien his three majority governments. It enabled Mr. Martin to hold onto power in the post-sponsorship scandal environment. And it will be key to both Mr. Harper and Mr. Igantieff's prospects this time around.

So what are we seeing in this battleground province?

I noted yesterday that we are spending a lot of time looking at the top line, national polling results. These are interesting and fun (yes, I am a geek) to watch. However, too much focus on the national number can skew how we view an election campaign. It's like reading the headline but not the article - you get a picture, but by no means the whole picture. As a result, you can miss things.

Nationally, we see some consistency to the polling numbers. Generally, results show a 8-10 Conservative lead. Ok, fine.

However, if we look at Ontario we are seeing the results getting closer. Some polls are seeing a small Conservative lead, others show a statistical tie. This compares with the start of the campaign, at which time the Conservatives enjoyed a strong lead in the province.

What's driving the shift? A big factor is the falling support for the NDP. One element of the Liberal narrative over the first two weeks has been the portrayal of the party as the only national party able to stand up against the Conservatives. That, coupled with Mr. Igantieff trying to take notion of the coalition off the table, I think is having an effect on the NDP voter.

Similarly, the Liberal platform is strongly aligned with many traditional NDP views in areas such as education, training and families. Again, this will be attractive to the NDP voter.

What this means on election day - the only poll that matters - remains to be seen. The Conservatives are holding their vote in the province; we are not seeing any real bleeding of their support to the Liberals. However, they are not growing in any meaningful way and may in fact be close to a ceiling.

For their part, the Liberals are shoring up their urban support and pulling support from the left. Unfortunately for them, there is not enough of it to make this in and of itself a game changer.

The result? No one can count on getting a Chretien-esque motherlode of Ontario seats on May 2. Which likely means more of the same in the next Parliament.

Of course, this assumes that the debates don't spark a shift. If Mr. Ignatieff decides to really go for it, to make the case why he should be the Prime Minister, to attack Mr. Harper and say Canada can do better with him, well that might change things. It's a risk, but it really is the only option if they want to make a real shot at winning.

So, who do you think will emerge the victor in battleground Ontario. Equally important, tell me why. What will make the difference for the Ontario voter?

P.S. For more on polling, including some great analysis you should be checking out: http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/. There's a lot of information on the blog, with regular updates and seat projections incorporating the latest polls.

Up next - from poll to poll...

I am not planning a new post until Sunday evening, so in the meantime I encourage you to take a look at the blogs listed on this site. They are offering great perspective on what's happened after 2 weeks of the campaign. Most of these bloggers are also on Twitter, so check them out there too!

One of the things on my mind is the multiple polls we are being bombarded with, and what they are (and are not) telling us. We are looking at national polls, but are in a campaign that will be won and lost in regions and ridings. The Ontario numbers in particular are key ones to watch...

More later, but in the meantime happy reading!

Stop the downward spiral, I'm getting dizzy!

You know those times when things aren't going well? You know, when you remind yourself that tomorrow is a new day and that things will get better? More often than not, you're right and the next day is better.

Not so for the Liberals.

It is now getting to the point where it appears as if polls are being released to inflict maximum hurt and despair. Each new poll is worse than its predecessor.

Today it was EKOS (http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/cbc-2009-10-08.pdf) and their poll is showing that the Liberals are leading...wait for it...no where. Not in Ontario. Not in Atlantic Canada. They even be back in third spot in Quebec and BC.

Yes you say, but they are still strong in the cities where so many voters live. Uh, no. With the exception of Montreal, they are trailing the Conservatives in Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa AND Toronto.

But wait, there's more! There is no demographic they are leading in. Not by gender. Not by age.

As we know, bad news tends to beget bad news. These things have a way of feeding off of one another such that before you know it a blip is a trend, and a trend becomes a fact.

Sadly, as discussed in numerous articles, blogs and news programmes so much of this is self-inflicted. For me a big one is the wasted opportunity to define the new leadership before deciding to move into election mode. Today, in what could have been week one of an election campaign, I have little sense as to what a Liberal government would look like.

Next week is break week. There will be soul-searching and reflection. But that needs to result in something more tangible than we can do better and we will. Otherwise the Liberals will run the risk of answering the question "how low can you go?"

From poll to poll

The first of many polls we'll highlight here came out this morning. Conducted by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and the Globe and Mail, the poll puts the Conservatives up by 5 points over the Liberals (35-30). The NDP are at 14, the Greens at 9. In Quebec, the Bloc is up to 49 - it's highest score since the 2004 election. Here's the article:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/new-poll-gives-tories-the-edge/article1278722/

Of course the poll does not take into account the ads recently released by the Liberals (more on those later this week).

Polls are funny things - part snapshot, part trend analysis. As more come out, including the daily tracking ones conducted by Nick Nanos and co., we'll discuss what to look for in a poll.

Later.