Role Reversal

Once upon a time there was a majority government that was prone to episodes of arrogance, and which would frequently demonize its opponents. When necessary, hardline tactics were used to end debate. They could be ruthless when necessary, capitalizing on the missteps of their opponents to secure victory.

At the same time there was an opposition. A collection of MPs, many of which shared similar views even if they did not share the same party affiliation. They were spirited, divided and frustrated. They did not consistently give the appearance of being a government in waiting.

This was the scene a decade ago. The government was Liberal and the opposition was the divided right (along with the NDP and the Bloc).

Fast forward ten years and the roles have been reversed.

The Conservatives are united and have their majority. They are a government which regularly faces accusations of arrogance and fear-mongering.

The progressive vote is now very much divided, with the NDP as the official Opposition and the Liberals trying to define themselves. Looking at the front benches of either, one struggles to see the makings of a full Cabinet.

While there are obvious differences to between the two eras, there are nevertheless interesting parallels that can be drawn - particularly for the opposition. I am going to focus on two: the pressure to merge; and the opportunity to influence.

1. The pressure to merge

In the late 1990s and into the early 2000s, there was growing pressure for the parties of the right to merge. In the end, it took three things to make it happen. Mr Harper's leadership (with Mr. Mackay's acquiescence), the push from the conservative establishment, and the fear over what a (pre-sponsorship scandal) Martin government would do to the right in an election.

Looking at things today and we do not see the same pressure points, yet. Permanent leadership among the NDP and Liberals is needed for a real dialogue to occur. The absence of the election around the corner also means that the parties are not feeling that same level of fear Conservatives had when it was widely assumed Martin would take power and immediately seek his own mandate.

Finally, the progressive vote is only now starting to see what a Conservative majority looks like. Over the next 12-24 months - and two budgets - the answer to the question "what will a Harper majority look like" will be answered. Depending on that answer, the progressives may start to see greater impetus to merge.

2. The opportunity to influence

During the late 1990s, the conservative right gradually came to have some influence on policy. Deficit reduction and clarity act are the two big examples where their influence could be seen.

This is not to say that they drove these policies or exacted them out of the government. However, the fact that views they were expressing were shared by many Canadians helped move the Liberal government to act. Put another way, they were on the right side of the argument. This had the effect of allowing more Canadians to see the right as being able and ready to govern.

Looking at things today, the progressive opposition would do well to find similar such opportunities to get on the right side of the argument. They need to develop cogent positions which mirror the public mood and try to influence.

The first opportunity will come over the coming months as the government prepares what promises to be an austerity budget. This budget (and the next) will introduce sharp contrasts between the conservative and progressive views on the role of government. In other words, there is a great opportunity to do more than oppose - they can present an alternative.

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The Conservative government isn't going anywhere for the next few years, and are well-positioned for the next decade. Those are the facts. However, the same could be said of the Liberals during much of their 13 years in power. The lesson - everything changes, so be prepared.

The progressive parties have time to prepare. Part of that preparation should include a meaningful discussion on merging. It should not be simply ruled out. They also need to use the coming months to start to develop policy positions which both reflect and influence how the public views the role of government.

In other words, they need to start down the path of looking like a viable alternative. It will take time, but it has to be done if they want to see roles reversed again.

With enemies like these, who needs friends?

So here we are, two days to go before the Thanksgiving break week and what seems an eternity away from the heady swagger seen at that Sudbury caucus meeting. What next?

For now, it seems that everyone has settled into the new reality which, to be honest, resembles the old reality. Government governs, opposition voices discontent, government continues to maintain confidence of the House. It's the way things were before, right?

Yes and no.

Yes, the government has survived this latest scare (even if they would have relished an election) and continues to have the upper hand over its opponents. They have more money, appear better organized and are controlling the message. Kind of like the last couple of years.

However, there are differences and importantly, they are differences which favour the government. Three points to consider:

1. Outside of Quebec, the flirtation with the coalition has hurt the Liberal brand. The strength of their brand was something Liberals could count on even when things were not going well. By going down the coalition route they eroded that brand and have struggled to get it back.

2. The recent Liberal push for an election without defining a reason has left Canadians with the perception that Harper is more reasonable and in tune with their views. That is some mean feat given the challenges he has had in resonating with Canadians.

3. The Liberal troubles over the past few weeks have given the Conservatives the luxury of sitting back, watching events unfold and reaping the benefits. In the past, Canadians were put off when the government went on the offensive and lunged for the jugular with partisan fervor. Right now, Harper doesn't have to do anything so off-putting - the Liberals are doing it for him.

All of this favours the Harper government - something reflected in every poll we see, at the national level and the all-important provincial level. With the economy showing signs of improvement, an Olympic love-in on the horizon and a PM playing (literally) to the arts community, the dreaded majority word is popping up everywhere.

Unfortunately, all of this is occurring at the expense of a real debate about how we will eliminate the deficit, how we are preparing for the economy of tomorrow, and how we are going to prepare for a demographic shift which will affect everything from health care to employment, economic growth to immigration?

Big questions and few answers. But for the Harper government, no worries. The Liberals are doing his job and are making him look good. With enemies like these, who needs friends?

Thoughts?