Watch this space

So, we have the composition of the House settled. We know the government, we know the Cabinet and we know that the 41st Parliament will start work shortly reviewing a budget we have more or less already seen. We also know that we should not expect another election until 2015.

But for all we know, there is still a lot to learn over the coming months and years. And for me, the biggest unknown is what happens to what has been most valuable piece of property in Canadian politics - the centre.

Politics watchers in Canada...watch this space.

The combination of a Conservative majority, an NDP opposition and the decimation of the Liberals and the Bloc has put the centre on the market.

For the first in a long time, the political centre - the space within which the majority of Canadians have historically felt the most comfortable - is truly up for grabs. And following the results of #elxn41, the battle for it is between the governing Conservatives and the opposition NDP.

For the NDP, capturing the centre would mean overtaking the Liberals as a true national alternative. For the Conservatives, it could mean taking another step towards becoming the 21st century version of the "natural governing party."

All to say, there is a lot at stake. So what should we be watching?

1. Whether the Conservatives move to the centre

Personally, I don't see this as being something deliberate within the government. I believe that Mr. Harper's views on the role of government are so entrenched that it is unlikely that he will move his party closer towards the centre and all that it means from a policy perspective.

I think on an issue-by-issue basis, he may consider subtle policy shifts which would continue the de-mystifcation of the Conservatives in the eyes of some voters. I just don't expect something more dramatic.

2. How the new NDP caucus performs

As noted in a previous posting, the newness of the NDP caucus has made them the de facto green party. There is not a lot of experience among their ranks.

What will they do with this new caucus? Will it be error-prone, or will they capture the energy that such significant change can produce to make a mark in Ottawa? Count on something in between. The key for the party will be to avoid wide-sale errors and gaffes.

The Liberals are not an alternative for at least an election, likely two. The performance of the NDP as the "government in waiting" is therefore critical. Demonstrate professionalism and competence and they could inch further towards the centre; demonstrate incompetence and a lack of judgement and they could be marginalized and leave the centre to the Conservatives.

3. What the NDP decides to be when they grow up

In an earlier posting I asked whether the NDP knew what they wanted to be when they grew up. While somewhat tongue-in-cheek, the question is still an important one. Do the NDP stay in their traditional space, or do they start to move into the more centrist-space once occupied by the Liberals.

If it is the former, the Conservatives will be pleased. Should the NDP decide to shore up their core and continue to focus on the more left of centre issues, they will cede the centre to the Conservatives. Put more bluntly, to the middle-of-the road voter, they will make the Conservatives look like the more reasonable, measured party.

If it is the latter, the NDP could further marginalize the Liberals by offering a more balanced and centrist alternative. In other words, they could cement their role as the alternative in Canada.

It is also interesting to note that the NDP actually have less power as the official opposition to a majority government, than they did as the fourth party in a minority Parliament. No longer a balance of power player, the NDP needs to find ways to influence government policy. This is what Reform did in the 1990s in areas like deficit reduction and the Clarity Act. The question now is whether the NDP can do the same.

Should they demonstrate more influence, they could de-mystify views about the NDP and make themselves appear more credible in the eyes of those voters who, faced with a Liberal collapse, went Conservative instead of NDP.

Yes, a combination of the Conservatives sticking their their game and the NDP tempering the Conservatives and offering more centrist and voter-friendly policy options could see the NDP start to challenge the Conservatives. This won't happen in four years, but over the next ten? It is possible.

***

My money is on the Conservatives hoping for two things: an NDP that regularly displays its inexperience; and an NDP that focuses on its core constituent issues, and stays more to the left. Why take the centre when it is ceded to you...

Of course, the advantage for all parties now is time. The fact that we have relative political stability for four years and are no longer being held hostage to the election around the corner means that parties have time to recalibrate, and focus on more of a long game. It should be fun to see what happens.

Divided, but not yet conquered...

In the past few weeks, a number of polls have been published and they all tell us the same thing - an election would not likely change much. In some, the Conservatives are falling; in others, they are holding a small lead.

No one is gaining or losing ground in any significant way. Why?

There have been some good pieces on this topic recently (Jeffrey Simpson's from the August 10 Globe and Mail being one that stands out for me). For this blogger, one point that would be worth exploring is the extent to which the Conservatives have not been better able to capitalize on a divided opposition.

Why is this on my mind? Perhaps the combination of the recent news about former PM Chrétien's health and the whole coalition chatter that followed the UK elections has me looking back at when - and why - we last had a majority government in Canada.

For many, the Liberal's success can be attributed to the fact that they faced divided opposition. Agreed - this played a big part. However, don't we have a similar situation today?

Let's consider this a moment.

From 1993-2003 we had 3 successive Liberal majority governments. Some key characteristics of their time in office included:

- a weakened opposition, with a lot of vote splitting on the right;
- the Bloc owned Quebec;
- a strong Minister of Finance who had to bring in fiscal restraint and then was able to be more expansive when the national finance's improved;
- a number of provinces were run by the Conservatives; and
- a national challenge in the form of the referendum.

From 2006-2010, the Conservatives have won 2 minority governments. Some key characteristics of their time in office include:

- a divided opposition, with the Liberals weakly-led and increasingly occupying the left with the NDP;
- the Bloc still own Quebec;
- a strong Minister of Finance who now has to bring in fiscal restraint, following a period in which he was able to be more expansive because the national finance's were strong;
- a number of provinces are run by the Liberals (or Danny Williams); and
- a national challenge in the form of the severe global economic contraction.

There are some important differences for sure.

First, the opposition the Liberals faced included the upstart Reform and the separatist Bloc. Today, the opposition are all established parties with relatively strong brands. Second, vote splitting among the right was more prevalent in 1993-2003period, particularly in vote-rich Ontario.

For me, while these differences are significant they don't fully explain the challenge the Conservatives have faced in reaching that electoral promised land. Are there other explanations worth discussing?

I think the events over the past 6-8 months start to answer this question.

In 2003, when Paul Martin was held to minority, you could argue that there was still public apprehension about Stephen Harper and what a "reform-conservative" government would look like. Perhaps the same thing occurred in 2006, when Harper won his first minority.

Today, what may be holding them back is not the public's fear of the unknown, but rather their concern with what they do know and have seen.

The proroguing of Parliament twice in 12 months to avoid the accountability of the House. The lack of respect for the same transparency campaigned upon. The disregard for almost unified advice on the census. The excessive expenditures on aircraft and summits during a time of apparent restraint.

Maybe the public is taking notice. And maybe this is why the Liberals hang on, the NDP remains a player, and the Bloc own Quebec.

You and I? We get more of the same.

Thoughts?