Confidence Games

I just watched Mr. Ignatieff's interview with Peter Mansbridge, and would say it's a fair bet that his comments on coalitions and how our system of government works will get most of the air time. However, in listening to his comments it occurred to me that over the past 2 years we have allowed rhetoric and spin to obscure our view of how one forms a government.

One's ability to govern flows from one's ability to hold the confidence of the House of Commons. That's it. The election simply populates that House with MPs representing parties - we elect MPs from which a government is formed.

After the election, the party with the most seats will be given an opportunity to form a government. They will do this by demonstrating to the Governor-General that they can obtain the confidence of the House. If they have 155 seats or more, this is easy - it's a majority government. If they have fewer, it becomes more complicated. Doable, but more difficult. That's the minority government.

The scenario being discussed now is what happens if Mr. Harper forms another minority government and at some point - perhaps on a budget - it is defeated. Such a defeat would indicate that the government no longer has the confidence of the House; that the majority of the elected officials did not agree with the proposals put before them.

The question put to Mr. Igantieff is whether at that point, would he try to form a government. Would he propose that he could maintain the confidence of a majority of MPs.

Here's the thing - there is nothing wrong with this scenario. This is how the system is supposed to work. Yes, the viability of his option is something that should be considered. The steps he would need to take to establish and maintain confidence would need to be understood for the Governor-General to offer him the opportunity.

But aside from that, this is the way our Parliamentary democracy works. Unfortunately our 2-year fascination with the word coalition has pushed this simple fact to the back pages. We have allowed what is appropriate and legitimate to be characterized as dangerous and illegitimate.

Now I fully expect that the spin machines will seize on Mr. Igantieff's remarks; that they will try suggest that it is he who has a "hidden agenda." This is unfortunate.

As voters, we should possess an understanding of our system and how it works. By informing ourselves we can take a step away from spin and towards engagement.

Well, it was fun while it lasted...

So is that it then? Has election buzz given way to election fizzle? It certainly seems like it right now.

Over the past 24 hours we have seen the Bloc indicate they will support the ways and means bill before the House, and the NDP say they will support the government's EI changes through to enactment. These moves - particularly the NDP's - ensure that the government will live through the fall. As the Globe is noting this evening, it's "Harper's Reluctant Coalition".

When the dust settles on September, it will be interesting to see who is pleased and is who unhappy following the latest turn of events. A few questions to consider:

• Will Ignatieff be that unhappy about not getting a chance to bring down the government this fall? Jack and Gilles may be supporting Harper, but they have helped the Liberals out of what could have been an awful mess of an election.

• Will Harper really be happy to have avoided an election? As many have noted in recent days, he might well have welcomed an opportunity to be forced to go to the polls by the Liberals-Separatists-Socialists. If you close your eyes you can just see the ads and hear the talk radio chatter in that campaign scenario.

• How happy are the NDP to be helping to prop up a government they have spent something like eternity vilifying? And what did they get for their support?

Readers (ok, I am not sure there are any but a blogger can dream...) will recall the following from my last post:

"At some point, the Liberals needed to break themselves free from supporting the government. While it may have been a necessary evil, it was damaging credibility, sapping party morale, and for many made them look weak.Mr. Ignatieff needed to make a break with the past and begin to set his own tone."

They swallowed hard, took a chance and have now broken free without paying a real cost. Polls may be worrisome right now, but in-between elections they mean less.

As Taber and Ibbitson commented this evening, they can stop looking like they are capitulating and start acting like a government-in-waiting. Time will tell if they can run with the reprieve they have been given.

Conservative-Socialist Coalition Anyone?

The government tabled proposals today which would extend EI benefits - something long sought by the Opposition. The NDP are cautiously making nice, batting their eyelids at the PM and saying all the right things. Has the government done enough? Stay tuned...