Have pen, will write again. I promise.

Tsk, tsk. Someone has been a bad blogger, failing to write and post for several weeks. I am looking to remedy that in the coming days. Unfortunately, a combination of travel, a pesky cold and that thing called life conspired to keep me away from this blog.

There's lots to discuss. Here's what is on my mind:

- Election looming -- who's ready?
- Day, Strahl and Cummins check-out, following Hill and Prentice - are the Tories now less Reform and more Harris-Ontarians?
- The election narrative - how is it shaping up?

The last point is probably the one that most fascinates me at the moment. The Conservative's narrative is, I think, pretty much set. It's about stewardship and economic competence, with a not-so-subtle suggestion that Mr. Ignatieff is in it for him. No surprises there.

It's the Liberal's narrative that I am paying more attention to right now. For my eyes, it is starting to take on a more defined shape and will present a real alternative. The "Harper's priorities aren't your priorities" theme we have chatted about will of course feature. However, it now seems that equal (perhaps more than equal) emphasis is being placed on the Conservative's approach to government and democracy.

Now on this blog I have written a number of times about the erosion of our democracy and the lack of engagement that both feeds and flows from the undermining of our political institutions. For me, if the Liberals can successfully make this a major part of the campaign we will have a chance to debate what government should mean for us. That interests me tremendously.

Of course, this will not be easy. The challenge will be to make this relevant and impactful to a Canadian voter still worried about the economy.

Thoughts?

Election Night...(sort of)

Later this evening we'll have the results of the 4 by-elections underway in Nova Scotia, Quebec and British Colombia. It will be interesting to see how the parties spin the results...

• Are these by-elections a "referendum" on the government?
• Are they a referendum on the Liberals and their recent form?
• How will the HST debate factor into results?

Stay tuned...

By-Elections - light beer for election junkies

As the Globe reported this morning, it looks like we will have to satisfy our election-watching cravings with four by-elections. It's like replacing a good session at the pub with a glass of light beer. At home.

Beggars (and bloggers) can't be choosers, I guess.

The by-elections - well at least two of them - could actually be reasonably interesting. Two are Bloc seats in Quebec and will remain so. Yawn.

The other two are in Nova Scotia and British Columbia. The former was held by Bill Casey - a former Conservative who ran last time around as an independent and has since retired from politics and is now serving as essentially Nova Scotia's GR guy in Ottawa. The latter has been held by the NDP since 2006, but is now vacant with the move of Dawn Black to provincial politics.

In both cases, two interesting things to watch.

1. How will the Liberals fare? In the Nova Scotia riding they finished fourth in 2008, while in BC they were a distant third. All to say that in good times, their prospects would not be high. And these are not good times. So they are not expecting a win, but their showing may demonstrate just how far they will have to climb if they are to seriously challenge in a general election.

2. Can the Conservatives turn recent events to their advantage and win one or both? The better bet is in Nova Scotia, as this has gone Conservative in every recent election save 1993 (PC blow out) and last time around (Conservative ran as an independent). BC will be trickier due to the debate over the harmonized sales tax, but results in 2008 were very close (fewer than 1500 votes separated the NDP and the Conservatives). In the end, both are winnable and the government's showing will help indicate whether a majority is becoming possible.

So come November crack open a beer and watch the results - provided there isn't a good hockey game on.